A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
